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一位熟悉美国的印尼人:我担心特朗普赢得美国大选

迪诺 北京对话Beijing Club
2024-11-20
Club点评:印尼外交政策协会创始人、印尼前驻美大使迪诺日前在京表示,特朗普所说的“让美国再次伟大”,体现的是自私自利。而这对世界来说是毒药。
迪诺在出席和平共处五项原则发表70周年纪念活动之“从和平共处五项原则到构建人类命运共同体:大变局下‘全球南方’的愿景与使命”论坛中,做出上述表示。
这位熟悉美国的印尼人,在发言中着眼全球南方的发展和对全球治理的推动,也对西方国家大开历史倒车进行了批评。他认为,中国和东盟杜绝教条主义,发展对外关系不以意识形态划界,取得的成功既让自身发展,也使本地区变得更好,可为全球南方下一步发展镜鉴。
北京对话整理迪诺发言和答问如下:

中国公共外交协会会长吴海龙主持讨论,参与嘉宾从左到右依次为:圭亚那前总统唐纳德·拉莫塔,摩尔多瓦社会主义者党主席、前总统伊戈尔·多东,埃及前总理沙拉夫,南非国家行政学院院长布萨尼·恩卡韦尼,乌兹别克斯坦总统战略与跨地区研究所所长埃尔多尔·阿里波夫,柬埔寨亚洲愿景研究所副所长温潘,老挝南芒1电力有有限公司董事宋目·奔舍那,印尼外交政策协会创始人迪诺,北京对话发起人李世默( 图源:北京对话)

图源:澎湃新闻

我们(全球南方)没有得到我们渴望得到的尊重
我认为,西方的许多伙伴没有理解,尊重对于我们全球南方的许多人来说是如此重要。我们不只是渴望更大的进步和发展。如果我们得不到尊重,那将是一个大问题。对我们来说,平等的问题也很重要。因为当前世界的情况往往是,如果他们比我们强大得多,那么他们就不会平等对待我们,会把我们当作下属,希望我们盲目地追随他们。如果我们不从,他们就欺负我们。我们没有平等交往的感觉。因此,这对全球南方国家来说非常重要。
回顾过去七十年,对我们在座的所有人来说,好消息是,世界已然日新月异。全球南方的国家比七十年前更加富裕和强大,例如印度、沙特阿拉伯和韩国的国防预算超过了英国、法国和意大利。到 2030 年,印度尼西亚、巴西、墨西哥、土耳其和南非的购买力平价总值将超过德国、意大利、西班牙、荷兰和瑞典。我们看到的是一个巨大的上升。
关于中国,首先,我赞同习近平主席所说的话,即各国人民应自主选择发展道路。我觉得全球南方绝大多数国家都不会反对这一点,我们怎么可能不同意这样的事情呢?我知道中国的发展给西方世界的某些国家带来了不安全感,尤其是认为“看,我们的全球霸主地位正受到中国发展的挑战”的国家。但对我们发展中国家来说,我们乐见中国的发展和成功。同为发展中国家,如果我们的兄弟国家实现发展和成功,我们就会鼓掌、庆祝。同样,正如我们所期待的那样,当我们取得更大的发展和成功时,中国也会庆祝。这里没有不安全感,我们都希望共同成长
在中国纪念和平共处五项原则 70 周年之际,我认为我们正在超越和平共处,共处意味着接受你在我旁边,我们只是共存。但是,我们想要更多:我们想要共同创造,我们想要合作,我们想要升级。为什么这很重要?因为正如在座各位所说,这是一个充满竞争和分裂的艰难世界。
当前世界非常僵化。西方正在与中国脱钩和去风险化,对话的空间正在缩小,是他们在退缩。因此,某些国家之间的局势相当僵化。这就是我们参加这次会议的意义。我们说,你们可以僵化、可以脱钩、可以去风险,但我们要发展我们的关系。中国已经是印尼最大的贸易伙伴。印尼与印度的贸易大于印尼与美国的贸易。换句话说,当世界上某些地区非常僵化地朝着一个方向发展、大开历史倒车时,我们向前迈进并创造更大的空间
今天,我对法国代表(注:法国前总理德维尔潘)所说的“这是一个亚洲世纪”印象深刻。我是亚洲人,我为此感到非常自豪。但是,请不要误会,这不是我们希望 21 世纪和平共处的结果。我希望这不只是一个亚洲世纪。我希望这是每个人的世纪。我希望这是一个非洲的世纪。我希望这是拉丁美洲的世纪。我希望这是一个中东世纪。我还希望这是一个欧洲世纪,甚至是美国世纪。这是属于每一个人的世纪,每一个人都在和平共处中共同发展
这就是和平共处五项原则的意义所在。我们要将其向前推进的最佳方式,就是杜绝教条主义。为什么中国能够成功地与世界其他国家和全球南方国家交往?因为中国在对外交往中不搞意识形态划界。为什么东南亚能够从一个四分五裂、暴力动荡的地区发展成为一个东盟大家庭?因为我们摒弃了教条主义,我们拥护互不干涉和相互尊重原则。因此,这也是我们希望看到的,摒弃教条主义,拥抱南南合作,同时也向全球北方、西方国家伸出橄榄枝,邀请他们加入我们,因为这是一个不同的世纪,这个世纪属于我们所有人。全球南方究竟能发挥什么样的作用?
你知道我担心什么吗?特朗普有可能赢得美国大选,也许是50%或51%几率,我不知道。但如果他赢了,这种“让美国再次伟大”的理念,这种自私自利的理念,就会在世界上许多地方蔓延开来。
欧洲刚刚在6月7日举行了选举,极右翼赢得了选举,他们传达的信息是:"一切以我为主,与移民或他国人等无关,一切以我为主"。这对世界来说是毒药。我认为,全球南方的国家必须发出这样的信息:是的,我们自身利益很重要,但如果我们不首先让我所在的地区变得更好,比如南亚、中亚、非洲等等,并让世界变得更好,我们不可能实现公平公正的增长。如果这种自私自利的心态传播开来,我认为是非常不健康的。全球南方的国家必须站在最前沿,阻止这种情况的发生。
刚刚主持人问到全球南方如何推动解决全球问题?我认为,我们也必须认识到自身问题。在全球南方国家中,因为我们都关注亚洲、非洲,毕竟万隆会议正式的名称是“亚非会议”。问题是,当我们谈论亚洲、非洲,以及合作与团结精神时,亚洲有四个国家在与非洲的经济交往中占主导地位:中国、日本、印度、印度尼西亚。七十年后,我们必须做得更好。七十年后,我们必须把与非洲合作的蛋糕分得更大。明年,我们将迎来万隆会议七十周年。亚非合作肯定远不止于中国、印度、日本和印度尼西亚。更多的非洲人需要来到亚洲,更多的亚洲国家需要去到非洲。我们必须正视这个问题。

1955年4月18日至24日,29个亚非国家和地区的政府代表团在印度尼西亚万隆召开亚非会议(图源:新华社)
(翻译:李泽西)
英文原文:
We are not getting the respect that we were aspiring to have. I think many of our friends in the Western world fail to understand that respect is so important to many of us in the Global South. We are not just aspiring for greater progress and development. If we are not respected, then that's going to be a big problem. And for us, also, the question of equality is important. Because we live in a world where, if you’re much bigger than us, then you don’t treat us as an equal, you treat us as subordinate, you expect us to follow you blindly. And when we don't, then you bully us. There's no feeling that we are engaged in a relationship as equals. So that was an important thing for the Global South.
Looking back seventy years ago, the good news for all of us sitting here is that it's a different world, because countries in the global south are richer and stronger than they were seventy years ago, India, Saudi Arabia and South Korea, for example, has a defense budget that's bigger than UK, France and Italy. And by 2030, the purchasing power parity of Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and South Africa will be larger than Germany, Italy, Spain, Netherlands and Sweden. It’s a really huge upper shift that we see.
And about China, first, I respect what presidency Xi Jinping said, that every country must be able to choose their own development path. And I think I'm not wrong in saying all, maybe most, but I would say all countries in the Global South would not disagree with that. I mean, how can we disagree with something like that? I know China's growth has caused insecurity in some parts of the western world, especially those who value, look, our primacy is being challenged by China's growth. But guess what, for us developing countries, we love seeing China growing and succeeding. You know what? Because fellow developing countries, if one of our brothers and sisters grows, becomes successful, we clap, we celebrate. Because, as we expect, China also celebrates when we reach a higher growth and success. There's no insecurity there, but we all want to grow together.
This is why we sit here 70 years after the first announcement of the five principles, I think we can say that we are going beyond peaceful coexistence, because coexistence means, you’re next to me, and fine, we just coexist. We want something more. We want to co-create, we want to cooperate and we want to elevate. And why is that important? Because as everybody here has said, this is a very difficult world of rivalries and division.
It’s very rigid. The west is decoupling and derisking from China, the space for dialogue is shrinking. They're pulling back. So situations are quite rigid among certain groups of countries. And this is the significance of our presence here. We say you can be rigid, you can decouple, you can derisk. But for us, we grow our relationships. China is already our largest trading partner. Indonesia's trade with India is larger than our trade with the United States and so forth. In other words, while certain parts of the world are going very rigidly and in one direction and backtracking, we move forward and we create greater space.
I know today I was very impressed with what the French representative said about this being an Asian century. I'm an Asian, we’re all Asians, I'm very proud of that. But make no mistake, that’s not what we want this peaceful coexistence to lead us to in the 21st century. I don't want this to be just an Asian century. I want this to be everybody's century. I want this to be an Africa century. I want this to be a Latin American century. I want this to be Middle Eastern century. I still want this to be a European century and even an American century. It’s the century that belongs to everybody, everybody grows together and in peace.
And this is what the five principles of coexistence is all about, and the best way for us to keep it forward, is to keep dogma out. Why has China been successful engaging the rest of the world and the Global South? Because China took ideology out of its relationships. Why did Southeast Asia, like ASEAN, move from being a divided and violent turbulent region to become one ASEAN family of nations, because we took dogma out, and we embrace noninterference and mutual respect. So this is what we want, for us to take dogma out, embrace South South cooperation, but also extend a reaching hand to the north, the western countries, and say, come join us, it's a different century, and this century belongs to all of us.
You know what worries me? Probably there's a chance Donald Trump will win the US elections, maybe 50, 51% chance, I don’t know. But if he wins, this thing about make America great again, this notion, it's all about me, it's gonna be spreading in many parts of the world. In Europe, we just had elections on 7th of June, the far right won with a message of, it’s all about me, not about immigrants or foreigners coming in, it’s all by me. That is a poison for the world. I think countries in the Global South have to send a message, yes, I'm important, but we can’t have this equitable and just growth, unless first I make my region better, South Asia, Central Asia, Africa, what have you, and I make the world a better place. But if this virus is all about me mentality spread, I think it’s very unhealthy. And countries in the Global South must be at the forefront of pushing that back.
I think it’s important for us to recognize our problems too, among the Global South, because we all focus on Asia, Africa, there’s Bandung Asian-African Conference. The problem is when we talk about Asia, Africa or the spirit of cooperation and solidarity, four countries in Asia dominate economic engagement with Africa: China, Japan, India, and in Southeast Asia, Indonesia is the top industrial trading partner in Africa… After seventy years, we have to do better. We have to spread the cake, spread the engagement a lot better after seventy years. Next year we will have seventy years of Bandung conference. It’s definitiely more than China, Indian, Japan, Indonesia. Both sides, more Africans need to be in Asia, more Asian countries need to be in Africa. And we have to be honest in recognizing the problem.
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